The Bitcoin (BTC) price is consolidating just below $61,000 in wake of the release of a slightly hotter-than-expected US CPI inflation report for September.
The YoY rate of headline Consumer Price Index inflation clocked in at 2.4% for September, a little above the expected 2.3%.
The YoY Core CPI rate was 3.3%, meanwhile, a tad above the expected 3.2% reading.
Both are substantially down from post-pandemic highs, but both remain ahead of the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target.
Fed policymakers reacted positively to the latest report, suggesting that progress on getting inflation back to the Fed’s goal continues.
Macro traders responded by modestly upping their bets that the Fed will deliver a 25bps rate cut to 4.50-4.75% in November.
Per the CME’s Fed Watch Tool, money markets imply an 87% chance of a 25bps rate cut next month, versus just 80% one day ago.
But that failed to spur a rally in the Bitcoin price, which remains marooned close to its 50DMA in the $60,000 area.
Bitcoin Price Struggles in October
The Fed cut interest rates for the first time since 2020 by 50bps in September, spurring a major market rally at the time.
Since then, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has played down the chances of further 50bps rate moves.
And strong economic data (last week’s jobs report and the just released US CPI data) has generally also pushed back against the likelihood of more 50bps rate moves.
That, plus a rise in military tensions between Iran and Israel, appears to have weighed on Bitcoin market sentiment so far this month.
October has a reputation as the best month of the year for the Bitcoin price, hence the nickname “uptober”.
But so far, the Bitcoin price is down over 4%. Could a price surge be around the corner?
BTC Price Surge Around the Corner?
A cocktail of positive fundamental catalysts are building in the background that could launch the Bitcoin price higher later this quarter.
The timing and pace of the current Fed rate cutting cycle is uncertain given confusion about the strength or weakness of the US economy.
But what’s clear is that, barring an unexpected inflation spike, a Fed rate cutting cycle is here, and easier financial conditions lay ahead.
As long as that is coupled with a continued robust US economy, that should be a major tailwind for risk assets and the Bitcoin price.
Meanwhile, the likelihood of a Trump victory in the November Presidential election is growing, per Polymarket – Trump is seen as the much more pro-crypto candidate, and his election could be a catalyst for a major price rally.
It’s also been around six months since the Bitcoin halving. Historically, this is the point where Bitcoin bull markets go into overdrive.
Uncertainty surrounding geopolitics and the election could deter investors from piling into Bitcoin in October.
That could prevent a major Bitcoin price rally this month.
But all bets are off for November and beyond, especially if Trump retakes the White House.
New all-time highs and a test of $100,000 by December remains very much on the cards.
For what its worth, Polymarket betting markets put just a 20% chance that the Bitcoin price will hit $70,000 in October.
But the Polymarket betting markets have the chance of Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high this year at 54%.
The post Bitcoin Price Consolidates Above $60,000 After Hot US Inflation Data – Is An “Uptober” Price Surge Still Coming? appeared first on Cryptonews.
