Critical Bitcoin Support at $60,000 has come under scrutiny due to geopolitical risk fears, according to Standard Chartered Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick.
In a recent note, Kendrick argued that Bitcoin does not currently represent a safe-haven asset amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Following the crypto market’s plunge alongside stocks this week, triggered by Iran’s offensive against Israel, Kendrick stated that Bitcoin should not be viewed as a hedge against geopolitical risks.
Risk concerns related to the Middle East seem destined to push Bitcoin below $60,000.
While better-than-expected U.S. jobs data derailed Kendrick’s expectations for a break below this support “before the weekend,” the threat still remains.
However, the analyst noted this potential dip as a buying opportunity that “should be bought into,” pointing to increased activity in Bitcoin options markets and a “circularity” effect involving U.S. presidential odds as factors that could support prices.
Trump Overtakes Harris on Polymarket
Kendrick observed that the odds in the US presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have shifted slightly this week.
According to Polymarket data, Trump’s chances of winning the election have recently recovered, overtaking Harris by 1% after a long period where Harris held the lead.
US election outcome chances. Source: Polymarket.
“This creates an interesting circularity for bitcoin,” Kendrick explained. “Geopolitical concerns may push prices lower, yet these very concerns seem to increase Trump’s odds, potentially improving bitcoin’s post-election outlook.”
A Trump victory is seen as favorable for cryptocurrencies, particularly given his engagement at Bitcoin 2024 and his announcements regarding a decentralized finance (DeFi) project called World Liberty.
Analysts anticipate that Trump’s administration would accelerate progress on pro-crypto policies, with past Standard Chartered reports setting an end-of-year Bitcoin price target of $220K under a Trump presidency.
However, the report also noted the potential for a Harris presidency to push Bitcoin to a new high, with a target of $75K, especially with her recent public endorsement of digital assets.
Although Kendrick mentioned that her election might “likely trigger an initial price decline, we would expect investors to buy the dips as the market recognizes that progress on the regulatory front will still be forthcoming.”
Bitcoin Open Interest Sets Strong Medium-term Sentiment
Kendrick highlighted that recent market activity has shown a significant influx of Bitcoin call option positions. In the past two days, the amount of call option open interest for the 27 December expiry at an $80,000 strike price on Deribit jumped by 1,300 Bitcoin.
This growing demand for call options suggests that many traders are betting on upward price movements, which can contribute to a positive market outlook for Bitcoin.
The analyst cited this as further grounds for a buying opportunity, stating, “Positions like the $80k call options highlighted here and the circularity vis-à-vis Trump probabilities suggest the dip should be bought into.”
This is just one of many factors contributing to what is expected to be an explosive Q4 for Bitcoin as catalysts line up in its favour.
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