- CryptoQuant founder expects 3–5x BTC returns this cycle instead of another 10x rally.
- A more mature market could lead to a less severe Bitcoin bear market.
Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, is presenting an outlook that many retail traders may find unappealing: the current Bitcoin bull cycle is projected to yield 3–5x gains rather than a massive 10x surge, and it will likely be followed by a much softer bear market than those seen in the past.
In earlier years when Bitcoin was a smaller asset driven primarily by retail participants, speculative capital sparked immense gains alongside devastating 80% market crashes. The landscape today has evolved. With expanding institutional adoption and a much higher market capitalization, the factors that limit peak gains are simultaneously cushioning potential drops.
What the On-Chain Data Is Saying?
This exact shift is highlighted by the PnL Index, which measures overall holder profitability and shows less extreme peaks and troughs occurring at higher profitability thresholds compared to previous eras.
Additionally, the MVRV ratio stayed above 1 throughout this cycle. Even during market dips, the price of BTC remained higher than the average on-chain cost basis for investors. While some individuals experienced losses, the aggregate holder base never slipped underwater.
At the same time, three key indicators are aligning. Growth in the realized cap demonstrates continuous capital inflows, long-term legacy whales have halted their sell-offs, and futures whales established substantial long positions close to the market bottom. Even the 365-day moving average of the PnL Index—traditionally a lagging indicator during shifts—is currently displaying a significant inflection.
This does not imply that Bitcoin’s growth is capped; rather, the underlying dynamics have evolved. Trading away the 10x parabolic spike also means eliminating the 80% collapse, a trade-off that attracts patient, long-term investors rather than short-term speculative capital.
Moreover, the concept of Bitcoin functioning as genuine money—stable enough for daily use and reliable enough for storage—once viewed as an unlikely aspiration, might quietly be turning into truth. As Bitcoin matures into a functional currency, internet-native wealth has the potential to transform the global landscape far beyond mere price speculations.
The Short-Term Trajectory
Bitcoin (BTC), the leading digital asset, currently trades around the $86,079 level with a recorded trading volume of approximately $41.895 billion. Over the past 24 hours, it has moved within a range of $85,237 to $87,251. Following a rapid recovery from its lows, market sentiment has turned optimistic.
At the same time, historical technical indicators indicate that Bitcoin might encounter a 30% pullback, pointing toward a possible downward move. The projected path suggests an initial drop to the $77K–$82K region, continuing with a step-by-step decline through $70K and $60K prior to hitting a $54K target.
Crypto Market Highlights
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Frequently Asked Questions
What returns does the CryptoQuant founder expect for Bitcoin this cycle?
Ki Young Ju expects 3–5x returns for Bitcoin in this cycle, replacing the historical expectation of a 10x parabolic rally.
Why are future Bitcoin bear markets expected to be milder?
An increase in institutional ownership and a substantially larger market cap have introduced dynamics that not only limit massive upside gains but also cushion potential downside risks.
What is the MVRV ratio indicating during this cycle?
During this cycle, the MVRV ratio has not dropped below 1, meaning that even at market lows, BTC prices remained higher than the average on-chain cost basis of holders.
What are the potential short-term price targets for Bitcoin according to technical patterns?
Historical technical patterns suggest a possible 30% correction with a mapped trajectory pointing to an initial move to $77K–$82K, followed by declines through $70K and $60K down to a $54K target.
